Playoff Race 2023: Predicting Teams qualification chances

Playoff Race 2023: Predicting Teams qualification chances

For IPL 2023? All 10 teams are still mathematically in contention for a top 4 spot after 56 league stage matches.

During IPL 2023's league stage, there are nearly 16,400 possible combinations of results. TOI analyzes each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of making it to the playoffs.

Also Read: Playoff Race 2023: Predicting Teams qualification chances

As of now, two teams are almost certain to make the playoffs, one is a strong favorite, a fourth is a better-than-even chance, and the remainder can in fact tie for first place.

To determine how the teams stand as of Friday, May 12 morning, Shankar Raghuraman crunches the numbers:

1. GT is already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. Their lowest possible finish is tied for third and their chances of being the sole leader are now 80.1%. However, they are still theoretically capable of missing out on NRR if they finish in a tie with more than one other team for third place, but there is only a 0.4% chance they will do so.

2. CSK's chances of making the top four on points have now reached 99.3% with 16,262 of the remaining 16,384 combinations of results placing them there individually or jointly

After Thursday's win, RR moved into third place and dramatically improved their chances of making the top four on points to 56.3% or better than ever, though that includes scenarios where they're tied for fourth.

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Despite being in fourth place, MI's chances of making the top four on points are better at 75.3%, or more than three in four, thanks to the extra game in hand, though this does not exclude situations where NRR may be used.

5. Currently in fifth place, LSG has a 43.7% chance of getting into the top four, even if that includes scenarios where they are only joint fourth.

6. RCB are currently ranked sixth and their chances of finishing in the top four are 35.4%, including situations where teams are tied on points.

In KKR's case, their chances of finishing in the top four, either singly or jointly, have dropped sharply to 15.1% or less than one in seven. The best they can hope for is third place.

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With PBKS in eighth place, they have a little more than a one in three chance of finishing among the top four on points - either individually or jointly. To be specific, they have a 35% chance of doing so.

SRH have less than a one in four (23.1%) chance of finishing among the top four on points, but this tournament has been so even that they can still finish tied for first if they win all their remaining games.

DC, who has languished at or near the bottom for most of the tournament, has a 6.9% chance of making the top four, despite languishing at or near the bottom. As long as they win all their remaining matches, they can at best tie for third or fourth, and most of them involve multiple teams.

These probabilities are calculated as follows:

After analyzing all 16,384 possible outcomes in the fourteen remaining matches, we take the view that the chances of either side winning are even. This helps us form our probability number - by assessing how many of these combinations put each team in one of the top four slots. For instance, DC finished in the top four for just 1,125 combinations out of 16,384, which is a probability of 6.9%. Importantly, we have not taken into account net run rates or any no results (NR) since it would be difficult to predict those ahead of time.

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